IMF says war shocks and technology demand are pulling the global economy in opposite directions

Broad summary: The IMF's July outlook describes a global economy moving in two directions at once. Growth projections improved from April, but the Fund says the picture remains uneven because conflict, energy costs, financial conditions and technology demand affect countries differently. What is confirmed: The IMF projects global growth of 3.0% in 2026 and 3.4% in 2027. It says war-related shocks weigh more heavily on energy importers and vulnerable economies, while AI-linked demand supports countries connected to global technology value chains. Why it matters: The headline growth number can hide the distribution of pain and opportunity. A country that imports energy, carries high debt or lacks technology integration may experience the same global cycle very differently from a semiconductor or cloud infrastructure hub. Editorial note: This English edition keeps the IMF's caution intact. The projections are not guarantees; they depend on inflation, conflict, policy rates, trade rules and market reactions.